As Kofi Annan put it, “'Syria is not Libya, it will not implode, it will explode beyond its borders."
Syria's current crisis is not just about revolution against repressive ruling elite. It also has religious and sectarian sentiments which send strong messages to its neighbouring countries. A bit of background about the country will help to understand the situation clearly.
From its independence in 1946, Syria was desperately in need of stability. It faced many coups and counter-coups, and had 20 cabinets just between 1946 to 1956 and multiple versions of constitution. The Assad family rose to power with the 1970 Syrian Corrective Revolution. Immediately after which Hafez-Al-Assad, the current president's father, established Alawite rule of the country by offering high ranking positions to his loyalists, and close family members. This brought immediate stability and set the ground for development and progress.
Although the above revolution had its positive effects, Alawites, the current ruling elites, represent just 12% of the population. This allowed Alawites to enjoy benefits out of proportion, which could also be interpreted, inevitably, as marginalization of Sunnis who represent 74% of the population.
There are several Shi'ite sects which co-exist in harmony with Sunni communities. But, unfortunately, Alawites may not be one of them. Most of the Alawite belief is kept in secret and they don't pray in mosques. They consider pillars of Islam as symbols, rather than duties. They are considered as Pagans by early Imams such as Imam Ibn Kathir. This naturally places a historical mistrust between the local Sunnis and Alawites.
Even though Bashar-Al-Assad tries to over come this by emphasizing he is Baath Socialist, secular, and married to a Sunni wife, it is not so convincing when Alawites enjoy the government's favour. He even tried building mosques for Alawites, praying in mosques in public, and making Alawites act more like Sunnis. But, the sectarian division is more historical and deep rooted, and marginalization of Sunnis is too much to be overcome by such actions.
The mistrust of locals, and the craving for absolute power left both Assads, the father and the son, with no option but to rule the country with an iron fist. Any slight action against the regime, whether peaceful or not, is not tolerated. The regime has been very notorious for suppressing its own people. According to Wikipedia
On the other hand, he also drew criticism for repression of his own people, in particular for ordering the 1982 Hama massacre, which has been described as "the single deadliest act by any Arab government against people in the modern Middle East"; as well as others such as the April 1981 Hama massacre, the Tadmor Prison massacre, the Siege of Aleppo, Tel al-Zaatar massacre and the October 13 massacre.[6][7] Additionally, Human Rights groups have detailed thousands of extrajudicial executions he committed against opponents of his regime.[8]
So, the current state of conflict has dimensions such as
- A totalitarian regime which favours a small circle and marginalize the rest
- A Shi'ite sect suppressing Sunni Muslims
It is hard to judge the current revolution as it has a complex mixture of the both above elements. When oppressed Sunnis raise against Alawites, chantings such as "The Christians to Beirut, the Alawites to the grave" are common. These sentiments made many Alawites to think that Assad's fall will lead to a sectarian genocide. This made more and more Alawites to side with the regime, which in turn makes the revolution more and more sectarian. The involvement, and the massive financial and weaponry support the current regime receives from Iran, and the deployment of Hezbollah forces on the ground along with the government add fuel to the sectarianism.
On the other hand, "Free Syrian Army" Syrian is a proof that the crisis is more about dictatorship rather than sectarianism. Syrian military leadership had issued orders to shoot disobeying soldiers who refuse to shoot at unarmed civilians. Such defectors, including high ranking officers, who sidelined with the civilians have come together and formed Free Syrian Army. Free Syrian Army is made up of both Alawites and Sunnis. This puts revolutionaries of Sunnis and Alawites together against an oppressive regime and in the same plate.
This uprising also draws other countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi in to the picture as regional and neighbouring powers.
Around 30,000 refugees have camped near the Turkish border, and Turkey is already providing a base for Free Syrian Army... Hezbollah is already on the ground with Assad... Jordan is giving shelter to refugees... Saudi is providing arms for revolutionaries...
The Syrian issue seems to be spreading to the other countries day by day, rather than settling. Yes, Kofi Annan is correct. “'Syria is not Libya, it will not implode, it will explode beyond its borders."
